| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11582 |
| DP11582 The Output Costs of Hard and Soft Sovereign Default | |
| Christoph Trebesch | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-10-19 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | How costly are sovereign debt crises? In this paper we study output losses during sovereign default and debt renegotiation episodes since 1980. In contrast to previous work, we account for the severity of default and not only for its occurrence. Specifically, we distinguish between "hard" and "soft" defaults, using new data on debtor payment and negotiation behavior and on the size of haircuts towards private external creditors. We show that hard defaults are associated with a much steeper drop in GDP, of up to ten percent, compared to soft defaults, and address concerns of reverse causality and omitted variable bias. The results question the standard assumption that defaults trigger fixed and lump-sum costs. Instead, the findings are consistent with models assuming proportional output costs of default. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Sovereign debt crises Debt restructuring Economic growth Reputation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11582 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540395 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christoph Trebesch. DP11582 The Output Costs of Hard and Soft Sovereign Default. 2016. |
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