| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11640 |
| DP11640 Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard | |
| Kris Mitchener; Gonçalo Pina | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-11-15 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on commodity-price movements from the classical gold standard era, we then show that the model’s main prediction holds even for the canonical example of hard pegs. We identify a negative causal relationship between export-price shocks and currency-risk premia in emerging market economies, indicating that negative export-price shocks increased the probability that countries abandoned their pegs. |
| 主题 | Economic History ; International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Currency risk Commodity prices Exchange-rate devaluation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11640 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540454 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kris Mitchener,Gonçalo Pina. DP11640 Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard. 2016. |
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