| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| 来源ID | DP11729
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| DP11729 A Behavioral New Keynesian Model |
| Xavier Gabaix
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| 发表日期 | 2016-12-31
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| 出版年 | 2016
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | This paper presents a framework for analyzing how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy. The model is a tractable and parsimonious enrichment of the widely-used New Keynesian model – with one main new parameter, which quantifies how poorly agents understand future policy and its impact. That myopia parameter, in turn, affects the power of monetary and fiscal policy in a microfounded general equilibrium.
A number of consequences emerge. (i) Fiscal stimulus or “helicopter drops of money” are powerful and, indeed, pull the economy out of the zero lower bound. More generally, the model allows for the joint analysis of optimal monetary and fiscal policy. (ii) The Taylor principle is strongly modified: even with passive monetary policy, equilibrium is determinate, whereas the traditional rational model yields multiple equilibria, which reduce its predictive power, and generates indeterminate economies at the zero lower bound (ZLB). (iii) The ZLB is much less costly than in the traditional model. (iv) The model helps solve the “forward guidance puzzle”: the fact that in the rational model, shocks to very distant rates have a very powerful impact on today's consumption and inflation: because agents are partially myopic, this effect is muted. (v) Optimal policy changes qualitatively: the optimal commitment policy with rational agents demands “nominal GDP targeting”; this is not the case with behavioral firms, as the benefits of commitment are less strong with myopic firms. (vi) The model is “neo-Fisherian” in the long run, but Keynesian in the short run: a permanent rise in the interest rate decreases inflation in the short run but increases it in the long run. The non-standard behavioral features of the model seem warranted by the extant empirical evidence. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
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| 关键词 | Behavioral macroeconomics
Bounded rationality
Zero lower bound
Forward guidance
Price level targetting
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| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11729
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| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540543
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Xavier Gabaix. DP11729 A Behavioral New Keynesian Model. 2016.
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