| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11754 |
| DP11754 Ambiguous Policy Announcements | |
| Luigi Paciello; Claudio Michelacci | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-01-08 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the effects of monetary policy announcements in a New Keynesian model, where ambiguity-averse households with heterogenous net financial wealth use a worst-case criterion to assess the credibility of announcements. The announcement of a future loosening of monetary policy leads to the rebalancing of financial asset positions, it can cause credit crunches, and it may prove to be contractionary in the interim before implementation. This is because the households with positive net financial wealth (creditors) are those that are most likely to believe the announcement, due to the potential loss of wealth from the prospective policy easing. And when creditors believe the announcement more than debtors, their expected wealth losses are larger than the wealth gains that debtors expect. So aggregate net wealth is perceived to fall, and the economy can contract owing to lack of aggregate demand, which is more likely when the inequality in wealth is more pronounced. We evaluate the importance of this mechanism, focusing on the start of the ECB's practice of offering forward guidance in July 2013. The inflation expectations of households have responded in accordance with the theory. After matching the entire distribution of European households' net financial wealth, we find that the ECB's announcement is contractionary in our model. In general, redistributing expected wealth may have perverse effects when agents are ambiguity-averse. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11754 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540568 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luigi Paciello,Claudio Michelacci. DP11754 Ambiguous Policy Announcements. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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