| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11760 |
| DP11760 Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900 | |
| Nancy Qian; Murat Iyigun; Nathan Nunn | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-01-09 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper investigates the long-run effects of climate change on conflict by examining cooling from 1400-1900 CE, a period that includes most of the Little Ice Age. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We first show that during this time, cooling is associated with increased conflict. Then, turning to the dynamics of cooling, we allow the effects of cooling over a fifty-year period to depend on the extent of cooling during the preceding fifty-year period. We find that the effect of cooling on conflict is significantly larger if the same location experienced cooling during the preceding period. We interpret this as evidence that the adverse effect of climate change intensifies with its duration. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; Economic History |
| 关键词 | Environment Development Political economy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11760 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540574 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nancy Qian,Murat Iyigun,Nathan Nunn. DP11760 Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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