G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP11760
DP11760 Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900
Nancy Qian; Murat Iyigun; Nathan Nunn
发表日期2017-01-09
出版年2017
语种英语
摘要This paper investigates the long-run effects of climate change on conflict by examining cooling from 1400-1900 CE, a period that includes most of the Little Ice Age. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We first show that during this time, cooling is associated with increased conflict. Then, turning to the dynamics of cooling, we allow the effects of cooling over a fifty-year period to depend on the extent of cooling during the preceding fifty-year period. We find that the effect of cooling on conflict is significantly larger if the same location experienced cooling during the preceding period. We interpret this as evidence that the adverse effect of climate change intensifies with its duration.
主题Development Economics ; Economic History
关键词Environment Development Political economy
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp11760
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540574
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Nancy Qian,Murat Iyigun,Nathan Nunn. DP11760 Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900. 2017.
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