G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP11789
DP11789 Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?
Guy Michaels; Georg Graetz
发表日期2017-01-17
出版年2017
语种英语
摘要Since the early 1990s, recoveries from recessions in the US have been plagued by weak employment growth. One possible explanation for these “jobless” recoveries is rooted in technological change: middle-skill jobs, often involving routine tasks, are lost during recessions, and the displaced workers take time to transition into other jobs (Jaimovich and Siu, 2014). But technological replacement of middle-skill workers is not unique to the US—it also takes place in other developed countries (Goos, Manning, and Salomons, 2014). So if jobless recoveries in the US are due to technology, we might expect to also see them elsewhere in the developed world. We test this possibility using data on recoveries from 71 recessions in 28 industries and 17 countries from 1970-2011. We find that though GDP recovered more slowly after recent recessions, employment did not. Industries that used more routine tasks, and those more exposed to robotization, did not recently experience slower employment recoveries. Finally, middle-skill employment did not recover more slowly after recent recessions, and this pattern was no different in routine-intensive industries. Taken together, this evidence suggests that technology is not causing jobless recoveries in developed countries outside the US.
主题Labour Economics
关键词Job polarization Jobless recoveries Routine-biased technological change robots
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp11789
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540603
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Guy Michaels,Georg Graetz. DP11789 Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?. 2017.
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