| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11792 |
| DP11792 Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different? | |
| Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-01-18 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We explore the effect on U.S. real GDP growth of the sharp and sustained decline in the global price of crude oil and hence in the U.S. price of gasoline after June 2014. Our analysis suggests that this decline produced a cumulative stimulus of about 0.9 percentage points of real GDP growth by raising private real consumption and non-oil related business investment and an additional stimulus of 0.04 percentage points reflecting a shrinking petroleum trade deficit. This stimulating effect, however, has been largely offset by a large reduction in real investment by the oil sector. Hence, the net stimulus since June 2014 has been close to zero. We show that the response of the U.S. economy was not fundamentally different from that observed after the oil price decline of 1986. Then as now the response of the U.S. economy is consistent with standard economic models of the transmission of oil price shocks. We found no evidence of an additional role for frictions in reallocating labor across sectors or for increased uncertainty about the price of gasoline in explaining the sluggish response of U.S. real GDP growth. Nor did we find evidence of financial contagion, of spillovers from oil-related investment to non-oil related investment, of an increase in household savings, or of households deleveraging. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Stimulus Oil price decline Uncertainty Reallocation Shale oil Oil loans |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11792 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540605 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christiane Baumeister,Lutz Kilian. DP11792 Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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