| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11801 |
| DP11801 The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments | |
| Alan M. Taylor; Moritz Schularick; Oscar Jorda | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-01-23 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The trilemma of international finance explains why interest rates in countries that fix their exchange rates and allow unfettered cross-border capital flows are largely outside the monetary authority’s control. Using historical panel-data since 1870 and using the trilemma mechanism to construct an external instrument for exogenous monetary policy fluctuations, we show that monetary interventions have very different causal impacts, and hence implied inflation-output trade-offs, according to whether: (1) the economy is operating above or below potential; (2) inflation is low, thereby bringing nominal rates closer to the zero lower bound; and (3) there is a credit boom in mortgage markets. We use several adjustments to account for potential spillover effects including a novel control function approach. The results have important implications for monetary policy. |
| 主题 | Economic History ; International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Interest rates Monetary experiments Trilemma Fixed exchange rates Instrumental variables Local projections Local average treatment effect |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11801 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540614 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan M. Taylor,Moritz Schularick,Oscar Jorda. DP11801 The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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