全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP11837 Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP11837
	DP11837 Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade
	Alexander F. Wagner; Richard Zeckhauser; Alexandre Ziegler
发表日期	2017-02-06
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	The election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the United States of America on 11/8/2016 came as a surprise. Markets responded swiftly and decisively. This note investigates both the initial stock market reaction to the election, and the longer-term reaction through the end of 2016. We find that the individual stock price reactions to the election – that is, the market’s vote – reflect investor expectations on economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. Heavy industry and banking were relative winners, whereas healthcare, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and apparel were among the relative losers. High-beta stocks and companies with a hitherto high tax burden benefited from the election. Although internationally-oriented companies may profit under some plans of the new administration, several other arguments suggest a more favorable climate for domestically-oriented companies. Investors have found the domestic-favoring arguments to be stronger. While investors incorporated the expected consequences of the election for US growth and tax policy into prices relatively quickly, it took them more time to digest the consequences of shifts in trade policy on firms’ prospects.
主题	Financial Economics
关键词	Stock returns Event study Corporate taxes Trade policy Corporate interest payments Post-news drift Election surprise
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp11837
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540650
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alexander F. Wagner,Richard Zeckhauser,Alexandre Ziegler. DP11837 Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade. 2017.