G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP11911
DP11911 Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel
Robert Kollmann
发表日期2017-03-17
出版年2017
语种英语
摘要The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are highly correlated internationally. The model assumes recursive intertemporal preferences (Epstein-Zin-Weil), and a muted response of labor hours to household wealth changes (due to Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman period utility and demand-determined employment under rigid wages). Recursive intertemporal preferences magnify the terms of trade response to country-specific shocks. Hence, a productivity (and GDP) increase in a given country triggers a strong improvement of the foreign country’s terms of trade, which raises foreign labor demand. With a muted labor wealth effect, foreign labor and GDP rise, i.e. domestic and foreign real activity comove positively.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词International business cycle synchronization Recursive preferences Terms of trade Real exchange rate Wealth effect on labor supply
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp11911
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540723
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Robert Kollmann. DP11911 Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel. 2017.
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