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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP11911 |
DP11911 Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel | |
Robert Kollmann | |
发表日期 | 2017-03-17 |
出版年 | 2017 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country, two-traded good, complete-financial-markets world in which country-specific productivity shocks generate business cycles that are highly correlated internationally. The model assumes recursive intertemporal preferences (Epstein-Zin-Weil), and a muted response of labor hours to household wealth changes (due to Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman period utility and demand-determined employment under rigid wages). Recursive intertemporal preferences magnify the terms of trade response to country-specific shocks. Hence, a productivity (and GDP) increase in a given country triggers a strong improvement of the foreign country’s terms of trade, which raises foreign labor demand. With a muted labor wealth effect, foreign labor and GDP rise, i.e. domestic and foreign real activity comove positively. |
主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
关键词 | International business cycle synchronization Recursive preferences Terms of trade Real exchange rate Wealth effect on labor supply |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11911 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540723 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert Kollmann. DP11911 Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel. 2017. |
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