| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP11915 |
| DP11915 A theory of regional conflict complexes | |
| Thierry Verdier | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-03-18 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Civil conflicts spill over to neighboring countries. This paper proposes a theory of the contagion of civil wars, emphasizing two main channels of diffusion of a conflict. First, weak territorial control facilitates the emergence of a regional market for war inputs in the “porous frontier”. Second, refugees fleeing a conflict zone may unwittingly destabilize their host country. In both cases, the contagion effect is nonlinear and creates multiple equilibrium situations of regional complexes of civil conflicts. This helps explain observed patterns of regional clustering of conflict and state capacity, and raises identification issues in the measurement of the contagion effect. We also derive a positive spillover of civil wars: governments are sometimes in a position to avoid contagion by improving their institutions. Finally,we explore policy implications for military intervention, military and institutional cooperation, and the international coordination of refugee policy. |
| 主题 | Development Economics ; International Trade and Regional Economics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Civilwar Contagion Porous frontier State capacity Military intervention Institutional cooperation Refugees |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp11915 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540727 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thierry Verdier. DP11915 A theory of regional conflict complexes. 2017. |
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