全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP12022 How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP12022
	DP12022 How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?
	M. Ayhan Kose; Raju Huidrom; Franziska Ohnsorge
发表日期	2017-05-05
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	The seven largest emerging market economies—China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey—constituted more than one-quarter of global output and more than half of global output growth during 2010-15. These emerging markets, which we call EM7, are also closely integrated with other countries, especially with other emerging and frontier markets. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. We provide empirical estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We report three main results. First, spillovers from EM7 are sizeable: a 1 percentage point increase in EM7 growth is associated with a 0.9 percentage point increase in growth in other emerging and frontier markets and a 0.6 percentage point increase in world growth at the end of three years. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced economies). Specifically, growth in other emerging and frontier markets, and the global economy would increase by one-half to three times more due to a similarly sized increase in G7 growth. Third, among the EM7, spillovers from China are the largest and permeate globally.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词	Business cycles Spillovers External shocks China Em7 G7
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp12022
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540834
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	M. Ayhan Kose,Raju Huidrom,Franziska Ohnsorge. DP12022 How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?. 2017.