| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12028 |
| DP12028 Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and its Aggregate Implications | |
| Kathrin Schlafmann | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-05-08 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the role of household income expectations for consumption decisions. Using micro level data, we first document an systematic, income-related component in household income forecast errors. These systematic errors can be explained by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. We then study the implications of this bias in a quantitative model. Low income households who overestimate the persistence of their income are too pessimistic about their future income. This has two effects. First, these households are unwilling to borrow to smooth their consumption even though their borrowing constraint is not binding, thereby allowing the quantitative model to match the distribution of liquid assets across the income distribution. Second, they have lower marginal propensities to consume than their fully rational counterparts. Disregarding the bias in income expectations thus leads standard models to overpredict the effectiveness of government stimulus payments. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Household income expectations Savings Durable consumption |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12028 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540840 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kathrin Schlafmann. DP12028 Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and its Aggregate Implications. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| [Kathrin Schlafmann]的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| [Kathrin Schlafmann]的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| [Kathrin Schlafmann]的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
