G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP12029
DP12029 Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes
Nicholas Crafts; Terence Mills
发表日期2017-05-08
出版年2017
语种英语
摘要We analyze TFP growth in the U.S. business sector using a basic unobserved component model where trend growth follows a random walk and the noise is a first-order auto-regression. This is fitted using a Kalman-filter methodology. We find that trend TFP growth has declined steadily from 1.5 per cent to 1.0 per cent per year over the last 50 years. Nevertheless, recent trends are not a good guide to actual medium-term TFP growth. This exhibits substantial variations and is quite unpredictable. Techno-optimists should not give best to secular stagnationists simple because recent TFP growth has been weak.
主题Economic History ; Macroeconomics and Growth
关键词Productivity slowdown Secular stagnation Tfp growth
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp12029
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540841
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Nicholas Crafts,Terence Mills. DP12029 Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes. 2017.
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