| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12029 |
| DP12029 Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes | |
| Nicholas Crafts; Terence Mills | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-05-08 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze TFP growth in the U.S. business sector using a basic unobserved component model where trend growth follows a random walk and the noise is a first-order auto-regression. This is fitted using a Kalman-filter methodology. We find that trend TFP growth has declined steadily from 1.5 per cent to 1.0 per cent per year over the last 50 years. Nevertheless, recent trends are not a good guide to actual medium-term TFP growth. This exhibits substantial variations and is quite unpredictable. Techno-optimists should not give best to secular stagnationists simple because recent TFP growth has been weak. |
| 主题 | Economic History ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Productivity slowdown Secular stagnation Tfp growth |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12029 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540841 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nicholas Crafts,Terence Mills. DP12029 Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes. 2017. |
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