| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12051 |
| DP12051 Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models | |
| Maurice Obstfeld; Kenneth Rogoff | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-05-18 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper revisits the debate on ruling out speculative hyperinflations in monetary models. Although apparently a narrow issue, studying these extreme economies turns out to be quite illuminating in understanding the fundamentals of price level determination. It is also relevant in evaluating the broader claims that advocates of the fiscal theory of the price level have made. In Obstfeld and Rogoff (1983, 1986) we show that in pure fiat money models, where the government gives no backing whatsoever to currency, there is in fact no reasonable way to rule out speculative hyperinflations where the value of money goes to zero, even if the money supply itself is exogenous and constant. Such perverse equilibria are ruled out, however, if the government provides even a very small real backing to the currency – a fiscal mechanism, but one that comes into play only as a backstop. Indeed that backing does not have to be certain. Cochrane (2011, 2019), however, argues that this result is wrong, and that fractional currency backing is a Maginot line that is insufficient to rule out hyperinflation. We show here why, in fact, his analysis involves a subtle change in model specification that adds a distinct monetary fragility to our model. Our baseline analysis uses a canonical money-in-the-utility-function setup due to Brock (1974, 1975), but following Wallace (1981), we show the same results go through in an overlapping-generations model of money. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Asset bubbles Fiscal theory of the price level Hyperinflation Money demand |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12051-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540862 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Maurice Obstfeld,Kenneth Rogoff. DP12051 Revisiting Speculative Hyperinflations in Monetary Models. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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