| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12079 |
| DP12079 International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously | |
| Alan M. Taylor; Maurice Obstfeld | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-06-04 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In our book, Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth, we traced out the evolution of the international monetary system using the framework of the “international monetary trilemma”: countries can enjoy at most two from the set {exchange-rate stability, open capital markets, and domestic monetary autonomy}. The events of the past decade or more highlight the further complications for this framework posed by financial stability issues. Here we update and qualify our prior analysis, drawing on recent experience and research. Under the classical gold standard, scant attention was paid to macro management, either to stabilize output and employment or to ensure financial stability. The interwar years highlighted the changing demands for modern central bank interventions in the economy. Financial instability, followed by WWII, left a world with sharply constricted financial markets and little private cross-border capital mobility. Due to this historical accident, the Bretton Woods system agreed in 1944 focused not at all on financial stability, and focused on issues like adjustment, exchange rate misalignment, and international liquidity (defined in terms of official, not private, capital-account transactions). Post 1970s floating rates permitted, but did not require, liberalization of the capital account. But the political equilibrium had shifted in favor of financial interests, signaled by the push toward European integration and the later reform process in emerging markets starting in the 1990s. This development, however, opened the door once again to domestic financial crises and their international transmission. Countries now become more susceptible to a new species of “capital account crises,” fueled by bank and bond lending, and its sudden withdrawal. These developments, in fact, made evident a different, “financial trilemma”: countries can pick at most two from {financial stability, open capital markets, and autonomy over domestic financial policy}. We distill the main lessons as to the interactions between the monetary and financial trilemmas, and policies that could best address the resulting weaknesses. |
| 主题 | Economic History ; International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Trilemma International monetary system Macroeconomic stability Financial stability |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12079 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540890 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan M. Taylor,Maurice Obstfeld. DP12079 International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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