| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12083 |
| DP12083 Uncertainty and the Great Recession | |
| Benjamin Born; Steffen Elstner | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-06-09 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the U.S.? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. The answer is no. In total we find that increased macroeconomic and financial uncertainty can explain up to 10 percent of the drop in GDP at the height of the recession and up to 0.7 percentage points of the increased unemployment rates in 2009 through 2011. Our calculations further suggest that only a minor part of the rise in popular uncertainty measures during the Great Recession was driven by exogenous uncertainty shocks. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Uncertainty shocks Great recession |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12083 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540894 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Benjamin Born,Steffen Elstner. DP12083 Uncertainty and the Great Recession. 2017. |
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