全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP12187 Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP12187
	DP12187 Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations
	Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde; Thorsten Drautzburg; Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana
发表日期	2017-07-27
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	We argue that political distribution risk is an important driver of aggregate fluctuations. To that end, we document significant changes in the capital share after large political events, such as political realignments, modifications in collective bargaining rules, or the end of dictatorships, in a sample of developed and emerging economies. These policy changes are associated with significant fluctuations in output and asset prices. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks cause movements in output, unemployment, and sectoral asset prices. To quantify the importance of these political shocks for the U.S. as a whole, we extend an otherwise standard neoclassical growth model. We model political shocks as exogenous changes in the bargaining power of workers in a labor market with search and matching. We calibrate the model to the U.S. corporate non-financial business sector and we back up the evolution of the bargaining power of workers over time using a new methodological approach, the partial filter. We show how the estimated shocks agree with the historical narrative evidence. We document that bargaining shocks account for 34% of aggregate fluctuations.
主题	Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	Political redistribution risk Bargaining shocks Aggregate fluctuations Partial filter Historical narrative
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp12187
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540998
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde,Thorsten Drautzburg,Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana. DP12187 Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations. 2017.