G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP12188
DP12188 When to Lean Against the Wind
Moritz Schularick; Paul Wachtel; Björn Richter
发表日期2017-07-27
出版年2017
语种英语
摘要This paper shows that policy-makers can distinguish between good and bad credit booms with high accuracy and they can do so in real time. Evidence from 17 countries over nearly 150 years of modern financial history shows that credit booms that are accompanied by house price booms and a rising loan-to-deposit-ratio are much more likely to end in a systemic banking crisis. We evaluate the predictive accuracy for different classification models and show that the characteristics of the credit boom contain valuable information for sorting the data into good and bad booms. Importantly, we demonstrate that policy-makers have the ability to spot dangerous credit booms on the basis of data available in real time. We also show that these results are robust across alternative specifications and time-periods.
主题Economic History ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词Banking crisis Crisis prediction Credit booms Macroprudential policy
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp12188
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540999
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Moritz Schularick,Paul Wachtel,Björn Richter. DP12188 When to Lean Against the Wind. 2017.
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