| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12188 |
| DP12188 When to Lean Against the Wind | |
| Moritz Schularick; Paul Wachtel; Björn Richter | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-07-27 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper shows that policy-makers can distinguish between good and bad credit booms with high accuracy and they can do so in real time. Evidence from 17 countries over nearly 150 years of modern financial history shows that credit booms that are accompanied by house price booms and a rising loan-to-deposit-ratio are much more likely to end in a systemic banking crisis. We evaluate the predictive accuracy for different classification models and show that the characteristics of the credit boom contain valuable information for sorting the data into good and bad booms. Importantly, we demonstrate that policy-makers have the ability to spot dangerous credit booms on the basis of data available in real time. We also show that these results are robust across alternative specifications and time-periods. |
| 主题 | Economic History ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Banking crisis Crisis prediction Credit booms Macroprudential policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12188 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/540999 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Moritz Schularick,Paul Wachtel,Björn Richter. DP12188 When to Lean Against the Wind. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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