| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12215 |
| DP12215 The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence | |
| Giovanni L. Violante; Greg Kaplan; Kurt Mitman | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-08-10 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We build a model of the U.S. economy with multiple aggregate shocks (income, housing finance conditions, and beliefs about future housing demand) that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through a series of counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession and obtain three main results. First, we find that the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs. Shifts in credit conditions do not move house prices but are important for the dynamics of home ownership, leverage, and foreclosures. The role of housing rental markets and long-term mortgages in alleviating credit constraints is central to these findings. Second, our model suggests that the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in non-durable expenditures and that the transmission mechanism is a wealth effect through household balance sheets. Third, we find that a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures, but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Consumption Credit conditions Expectations Foreclosures Great recession Home ownership House prices Leverage Long-term mortgages |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12215 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541026 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Giovanni L. Violante,Greg Kaplan,Kurt Mitman. DP12215 The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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