全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP12303 Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit.

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP12303
	DP12303 Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit.
	Hylke Vandenbussche; William Connell; Wouter Simons
发表日期	2017-09-15
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	This paper develops a gravity model with sector-level input-output linkages in production. In contrast to a traditional gravity approach, which relies on direct gross exports between bilateral trade partners, our model additionally includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between goods and services sectors, (2) bilateral tariffs that affect direct production for a final destination as well as indirect production (shipped via third countries) to a final destination and (3) value added rather than gross production. Including input-output linkages implies that domestic production of intermediates can serve as inputs in foreign products and subsequently be exported "indirectly" to a final destination. Our input-output model can be taken to the sectoral World Input Output Database (WIOD) and can be used to evaluate trade policy shocks. While our framework is entirely general, we use it to predict the impact of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union ("Brexit") in terms of value added production and employment for every individual EU country involved. We find that Brexit hits the UK relatively harder than the EU-27. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 losses from Brexit to be substantially higher than hitherto believed.
主题	International Trade and Regional Economics
关键词	Global value chains Wiod Armington Brexit Sectors Input-output linkages
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp12303
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541113
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hylke Vandenbussche,William Connell,Wouter Simons. DP12303 Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit.. 2017.