全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP12313 What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP12313
	DP12313 What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory
	Roel Beetsma; Ward Romp; Ron van Maurik
发表日期	2017-09-19
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	Using a narrative approach we construct a unique dataset of pension reform measures for a broad sample of OECD countries over the period since 1970 and explore the determinants of those reforms based on information available at the time of legislation. We distinguish three potential reform regimes: expansion of pension arrangements through increased coverage, eligibility or higher benefits; contraction aimed at enhancing financial and fiscal sustainability or stimulating work incentives; and a regime that combines expansionary and contractionary reform measures occurring in the same year. Over time the expansionary regime has become less prevalent. The incidence of the other two regimes has increased over time. None of the three regimes are affected by current or projected future demographic changes. This finding is remarkable, as we would a priori expect reform measures to be closely linked to long-run financial sustainability considerations. By contrast, business cycle indicators play a substantially larger role. A worsening of the business cycle enhances the likelihood of the contractionary and combination regimes, and reduces that of the expansionary regime during the second part of the sample period. We present a simple theoretical model with an adjustment cost of changing the pension arrangement that can account for the responsiveness to the business cycle and the non-responsiveness to demographic forecasts.
主题	Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Public Economics
关键词	Pension reform measures Narrative identification Expansion Contraction Old-age dependency ratio Business cycle indicators
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp12313
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541123
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Roel Beetsma,Ward Romp,Ron van Maurik. DP12313 What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory. 2017.