G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP12313
DP12313 What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory
Roel Beetsma; Ward Romp; Ron van Maurik
发表日期2017-09-19
出版年2017
语种英语
摘要Using a narrative approach we construct a unique dataset of pension reform measures for a broad sample of OECD countries over the period since 1970 and explore the determinants of those reforms based on information available at the time of legislation. We distinguish three potential reform regimes: expansion of pension arrangements through increased coverage, eligibility or higher benefits; contraction aimed at enhancing financial and fiscal sustainability or stimulating work incentives; and a regime that combines expansionary and contractionary reform measures occurring in the same year. Over time the expansionary regime has become less prevalent. The incidence of the other two regimes has increased over time. None of the three regimes are affected by current or projected future demographic changes. This finding is remarkable, as we would a priori expect reform measures to be closely linked to long-run financial sustainability considerations. By contrast, business cycle indicators play a substantially larger role. A worsening of the business cycle enhances the likelihood of the contractionary and combination regimes, and reduces that of the expansionary regime during the second part of the sample period. We present a simple theoretical model with an adjustment cost of changing the pension arrangement that can account for the responsiveness to the business cycle and the non-responsiveness to demographic forecasts.
主题Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Public Economics
关键词Pension reform measures Narrative identification Expansion Contraction Old-age dependency ratio Business cycle indicators
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp12313
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541123
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Roel Beetsma,Ward Romp,Ron van Maurik. DP12313 What Drives Pension Reform Measures in the OECD? Evidence based on a New Comprehensive Dataset and Theory. 2017.
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