| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12357 |
| DP12357 Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities | |
| Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-10-06 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity. There have been numerous proposals for quantifying global real economic activity. We discuss which criteria a measure of global real activity must satisfy to be useful for modeling commodity prices, we examine which of the many alternative measures in the literature are most suitable for applied work, and we explain why some popular measures are inappropriate for modeling commodity prices. Given these insights, we reexamine in detail the question of whether global real economic activity has declined since 2011 and by how much. Drawing on a range of new evidence, we show that the global commodity price boom of the 2000s appears to have been largely transitory. Our analysis has important implications for the design of structural models of commodity markets, for the analysis of the transmission of commodity price shocks to commodity-importing and exporting economies, and for commodity price forecasting. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Commodity market Demand Real economic activity Oil price International business cycle Leading indicators Global economy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12357 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541167 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian,Xiaoqing Zhou. DP12357 Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities. 2017. |
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