全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP12454 The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP12454
	DP12454 The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment
	Benjamin Born; Gernot Müller; Moritz Schularick; Petr Sedlacek
发表日期	2017-11-22
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	Economic nationalism is on the rise. What are the costs of cutting back international economic integration and rising policy uncertainty? We use the unexpected outcome of the Brexit vote in June 2016 as a natural macroeconomic experiment to study the costs of economic disintegration and their causes. As a methodological innovation, we propose a novel combination of synthetic control methods to identify the output loss caused by the Brexit vote, conjoined with an expectations-augmented vector autoregression to understand its drivers. Using the synthetic control, we first show that forward looking households and businesses have lowered spending in response to the Brexit vote, causing an output loss of close to 2 percent. Decomposition of the VAR estimates shows that shocks to economic policy uncertainty and growth expectations in the quarter following the Brexit vote explain almost the entire output loss. While higher uncertainty accounts for much of the initial output drop, the economic costs increase over time because of a downward revision of output growth expectations. Overall, both uncertainty and growth expectations account for about one half of the total economic costs of the Brexit vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time series variance decomposition, our study exposes not only the aggregate costs of the UK’s expected economic disintegration from Europe but also specifies the channels through which the Brexit vote affected the macroeconomy.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	Brexit European union Policy uncertainty Synthetic control method
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp12454
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541265
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Benjamin Born,Gernot Müller,Moritz Schularick,et al. DP12454 The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment. 2017.