| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP12559
|
| DP12559 Versatile Forward Guidance: Escaping or Switching? |
| Hans Gersbach
|
| 发表日期 | 2018-01-03
|
| 出版年 | 2018
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | We examine how forward guidance should be designed when an economy faces negative natural real interest-rate shocks and subsequent supply shocks. Besides a standard approach for forward guidance, we introduce two flexible designs: escaping and switching. With escaping forward guidance, the central banker commits to low interest rates in the presence of negative natural real interest-rate shocks, contingent on a self-chosen inflation rate threshold. With switching forward guidance, the central banker can switch from interest-rate forecasts to inflation forecasts any time in order to stabilize supply shocks. We show that for small and large natural real interest-rate shocks, escaping forward guidance is preferable to any of the other approaches, while switching forward guidance is optimal for intermediate natural real interest-rate shocks. Furthermore, with the polynomial chaos expansion method, we show that our findings are globally robust to parameter uncertainty. In addition, using Sobol’ Indices, we identify the structural parameters with the greatest effect on the results. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
|
| 关键词 | Forward guidance
Zero lower bound
Central banks
transparency
Global robustness
Sobol’ indices
Polynomial chaos expansion
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12559
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541370
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Hans Gersbach. DP12559 Versatile Forward Guidance: Escaping or Switching?. 2018.
|
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