| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP12625
|
| DP12625 International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond |
| Antonio Ciccone
|
| 发表日期 | 2018-01-19
|
| 出版年 | 2018
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast with those of Bazzi and Blattman, who argue that the new dataset rejects that commodity price downturns cause civil wars. The reason is that I calculate commodity price shocks using time invariant (fixed) export shares as commodity weights. Bazzi and Blattman also calculate commodity price shocks using export shares as commodity weights but the exports shares they use are time varying. Using time-invariant export shares as commodity weights ensures that time variation in price shocks solely reflects changes in international commodity prices. Price shocks based on time varying export shares partly reflect (possibly endogenous) changes in the quantity and variety of countries' exports, which jeopardizes causal estimation. I also show that setting time-invariant export shares equal to average export shares over the sample period, can be a way of dealing with attenuation bias due to mismeasured export shares. When I differentiate between agricultural commodities on the one hand and minerals, oil, and gas on the other, I find stronger increases in the risk of civil war outbreak following downturns in agricultural commodity prices. |
| 主题 | Development Economics
; Macroeconomics and Growth
|
| 关键词 | Civil wars
Commodity price downturns
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12625
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541437
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Antonio Ciccone. DP12625 International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond. 2018.
|
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
