| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP12680
|
| DP12680 Financial Vulnerability and Monetary Policy |
| Tobias Adrian; Fernando Duarte
|
| 发表日期 | 2018-02-04
|
| 出版年 | 2018
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | We present a microfounded New Keynesian model that features financial vulnerabilities. Financial intermediaries' occasionally binding value at risk constraints give rise to variation in the pricing of risk that generate time varying risk in the conditional mean and volatility of the output gap. The conditional mean and volatility are negatively related: during times of easy financial conditions, growth tends to be high, and risk tends to be low. Monetary policy affects output directly via the IS curve, and indirectly via the pricing of risk that relates to the tightness of the value at risk constraint. The optimal monetary policy rule always depends on financial vulnerabilities in addition to the output gap, inflation, and the natural rate. We show that a classic Taylor rule exacerbates deviations of the output gap from its target value of zero relative to an optimal interest rate rule that includes vulnerability. Simulations show that optimal policy significantly increases welfare relative to a classic Taylor rule. Alternative policy paths using historical examples illustrate the usefulness of the proposed policy rule. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics
|
| 关键词 | monetary policy
Macro-finance
Financial stability
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12680
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541492
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Tobias Adrian,Fernando Duarte. DP12680 Financial Vulnerability and Monetary Policy. 2018.
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