| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12693 |
| DP12693 Protectionism and the Business Cycle | |
| Fabio Ghironi; Alessandro Barattieri; Matteo Cacciatore | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-02-07 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the consequences of protectionism for macroeconomic fluctuations. First, using high-frequency trade policy data, we present fresh evidence on the dynamic effects of temporary trade barriers. Estimates from country-level and panel VARs show that protectionism acts as a supply shock, causing output to fall and inflation to rise in the short run. Moreover, protectionism has at best a small positive effect on the trade balance. Second, we build a small open economy model with firm heterogeneity, endogenous selection into trade, and nominal rigidity to study the channels through which protectionism affects aggregate fluctuations. The model successfully reproduces the VAR evidence and highlights the importance of aggregate investment dynamics and micro-level reallocations for the contractionary effects of tariffs. We then use the model to study scenarios where temporary trade barriers have been advocated as potentially beneficial, including recessions with binding constraints on monetary policy easing or in the presence of a fixed exchange rate. Our main conclusion is that, in all the scenarios we consider, protectionism is not an effective tool for macroeconomic stimulus. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | inflation Liquidity trap Macroeconomic dynamics Protectionism Tariffs |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12693 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541505 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fabio Ghironi,Alessandro Barattieri,Matteo Cacciatore. DP12693 Protectionism and the Business Cycle. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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