| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12740 |
| DP12740 The culture of overconfidence | |
| Venkataraman Bhaskar; Caroline Thomas | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-02-20 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Why do political leaders or managers persist with their pet projects and policies despite bad news? When project continuation is a more informative experiment than project termination, a reputationally concerned leader is biased towards continuation, as it enables her to disclose her private information. Perceived overconfidence on the part of the leader aggravates this tendency, even when the leader is not, in fact, overconfident. Higher-order beliefs regarding overconfidence can induce inefficient equilibrium selection even when it is ``almost common knowledge" that the leader is not overconfident. Thus, a culture where leaders are expected to be overconfident can have undesirable effects even upon leaders who have correct beliefs. |
| 主题 | Industrial Organization |
| 关键词 | Overconfidence Policy persistence Mis-specified models Non-common priors Higher-order beliefs |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12740 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541550 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Venkataraman Bhaskar,Caroline Thomas. DP12740 The culture of overconfidence. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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