| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12768 |
| DP12768 Plotting interest rates: The FOMC’s projections and the economy | |
| Stefan Gerlach; Rebecca Stuart | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-03-02 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The FOMC’s “dot plots” contain members’ views regarding what federal funds rate will be necessary in the end of this and the coming years for the FOMC to achieve its statutory objectives. The dots can be interpreted as instantaneous forward rates. We fit a curve, which is characterised by four parameters, through them and study how it moves with the economy. We find that the level of the federal funds rate the month before the FOMC meeting, the unemployment rate and (updated) estimates by Laubach and Williams (2003) of the natural real interest rate shape the curves. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Federal Reserve monetary policy Interest rate expectations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12768 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541577 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stefan Gerlach,Rebecca Stuart. DP12768 Plotting interest rates: The FOMC’s projections and the economy. 2018. |
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