全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP12808 Real Interest Rates and Productivity in Small Open Economies

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP12808
	DP12808 Real Interest Rates and Productivity in Small Open Economies
	Tommaso Monacelli; Luca Sala; Daniele Siena
发表日期	2018-03-22
出版年	2018
语种	英语
摘要	In emerging market economies (EMEs), capital inflows are associated to productivity booms. However, the experience of advanced small open economies (AEs), like the ones of the Euro Area periphery, points to the opposite, i.e., capital inflows lead to lower productivity, possibly due to capital misallocation. We measure capital flow shocks as (exogenous) variations in (world) real interest rates. We show that, in the data, the misallocation narrative fits the evidence only for AEs: lower real interest rates lead to lower productivity in AEs, whereas the opposite holds for EMEs. We build a business cycle model with firms' heterogeneity, financial imperfections and endogenous productivity. The model combines a misallocation effect, stemming from capital inflows, with an original sin effect, whereby capital inflows, via a real exchange rate appreciation, affect the borrowing ability of the incumbent, marginally more productive firms. The estimation of the model reveals that a low trade elasticity combined with high (low) firms' productivity dispersion in EMEs (AEs) are crucial ingredients to account for the different effects of capital inflows across groups of countries. The relative balance of the misallocation and the original sin effect is able to simultaneously rationalize the evidence in both EMEs and AEs.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp12808
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541617
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tommaso Monacelli,Luca Sala,Daniele Siena. DP12808 Real Interest Rates and Productivity in Small Open Economies. 2018.