| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12898 |
| DP12898 Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior | |
| Tobias Broer; Alexandre Kohlhas | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-04-27 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Professional forecasts are often used to gauge the expectations of households and firms. Recently, the average of such forecasts have been argued to support rational expectation formation with noisy private information. We document that individual forecasts of US GDP and inflation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters overrespond to both private and public information, contradicting, prima facie, the assumption of noisy rational expectation formation. We generalize two alternative models of forecaster behavior that focus on strategic diversification and behavioral overconfidence, respectively, to dynamic environments with noisy private information. We find that both models predict overresponses, but only the overconfidence model is simultaneously consistent with a substantial overreaction to public information. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Forecaster behavior Rational expectations Bounded rationality |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12898 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541709 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tobias Broer,Alexandre Kohlhas. DP12898 Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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