| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP12968
|
| DP12968 Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite |
| Michael Woodford
|
| 发表日期 | 2018-06-03
|
| 出版年 | 2018
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | It is common to analyze the effects of alternative monetary policy commitments under the assumption of fully model-consistent expectations. This implicitly assumes unrealistic cognitive abilities on the part of economic decision makers. The relevant question, however, is not whether the assumption can be literally correct, but how much it would matter to model decision making in a more realistic way. A model is proposed, based on the architecture of artificial intelligence programs for problems such as chess or go, in which decision makers look ahead only a finite distance into the future, and use a value function learned from experience to evaluate situations that may be reached after a finite sequence of actions by themselves and others. Conditions are discussed under which the predictions of a model with finite-horizon forward planning are similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium, and under which they are instead quite different. The model is used to re-examine the consequences that should be expected from a central-bank commitment to maintain a fixed nominal interest rate for a substantial period of time. “Neo-Fisherian” predictions are shown to depend on using rational expectations equilibrium analysis under circumstances in which it should be expected to be unreliable. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
|
| 关键词 | Forward guidance
Bounded rationality
Neo-fisherianism
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12968
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541776
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Michael Woodford. DP12968 Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite. 2018.
|
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
