| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12981 |
| DP12981 Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve | |
| Michael McLeay; Silvana Tenreyro | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-06-08 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper explains why inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap. In other words, it explains why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve. We show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold – on the contrary, our conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. The reason is simple: if monetary policy is set with the goal of minimising welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Phillips curve Inflation targeting Identification |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12981 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541789 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael McLeay,Silvana Tenreyro. DP12981 Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
