| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13110 |
| DP13110 Who Voted for Brexit? Individual and Regional Data Combined | |
| Sascha O. Becker; Thiemo Fetzer; Dennis Novy | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-08-12 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question. We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy. In addition, we show that prediction accuracy is geographically heterogeneous across UK regions, with strongly pro-Leave and strongly pro-Remain areas easier to predict. We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics ; Labour Economics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Aggregation Ecological fallacy European union Populism Referendum Uk |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13110 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541913 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sascha O. Becker,Thiemo Fetzer,Dennis Novy. DP13110 Who Voted for Brexit? Individual and Regional Data Combined. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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