| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP13118
|
| DP13118 Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference |
| Rodrigo Adao; Eduardo Morales
|
| 发表日期 | 2018-08-16
|
| 出版年 | 2018
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | We study inference in shift-share regression designs, such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of observed sectoral shocks, using regional sector shares as weights. We conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift-share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across U.S. Commuting Zones. Tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5% nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55% of the placebo samples. We use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares, independently of their geographic location. We derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross-regional correlation in the regression residuals. We show that our methods yield substantially wider confidence intervals in popular applications of shift-share regression designs. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics
; Labour Economics
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13118
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541921
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Rodrigo Adao,Eduardo Morales. DP13118 Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference. 2018.
|
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