| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13128 |
| DP13128 Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding | |
| Klaus Desmet; Robert Kopp; David Krisztian Nagy; Michael Oppenheimer; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-08-20 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Sea-level rise and ensuing permanent coastal inundation will cause spatial shifts in population and economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a highly spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy that accounts for the dynamics of migration, trade, and innovation, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea-level changes under different emissions scenarios. Under an intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by an average of 0.19% in present value terms, with welfare declining by 0.24% as people move to places with less attractive amenities. By the year 2200 a projected 1.46% of world population will be displaced. Losses in many coastal localities are more than an order of magnitude larger, with some low-lying urban areas particularly hard hit. When ignoring the dynamic economic adaptation of investment and migration to flooding, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11% to 4.5%. This shows the importance of including dynamic adaptation in future loss models. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Space Geography Sea-level rise Coastal flooding Spatial growth models Mobility Trade |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13128 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541932 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Klaus Desmet,Robert Kopp,David Krisztian Nagy,et al. DP13128 Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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