| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13141 |
| DP13141 Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks | |
| Robert Kollmann; Marco Ratto; Werner Roeger; Lukas Vogel | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-08-25 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The trade balances of the Euro Area (EA) and of the US have improved markedly after the Global Financial Crisis. This paper quantifies the drivers of EA and US economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated (1999-2017) three-region (US, EA, rest of world) DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities. In the model, commodity prices reflect global demand and supply conditions. The paper highlights the key contribution of the post-crisis collapse in commodity prices for the EA and US trade balance reversal. Aggregate demand shocks originating in Emerging Markets too had a significant impact on EA and US trade balances. The broader lesson of this paper is that Emerging Markets and commodity shocks are major drivers of advanced countries’ trade balances and terms of trade. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Ea and us external adjustment Commodity markets Emerging markets |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13141 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541944 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robert Kollmann,Marco Ratto,Werner Roeger,et al. DP13141 Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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