| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13149 |
| DP13149 Fiscal Policy, Potential Output and the Shifting Goalposts | |
| Antonio Fatas | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-08-31 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies the negative loop created by the interaction between pessimistic estimates of potential output and the effects of fiscal policy during the 2008-2014 period in Europe. The crisis of 2008 created an overly pessimistic view on potential output among policy makers that led to a large adjustment in fiscal policy. Contractionary fiscal policy, via hysteresis effects, caused a reduction in potential output that validated the original pessimistic forecasts and led to a second round of fiscal consolidation. The evidence suggests that this succession of contractionary fiscal policies was likely self-defeating for many European countries as the negative effects on GDP caused more damage to the sustainability of debt than the benefits of the budgetary adjustments. The paper concludes by discussing alternative frameworks for fiscal policy that could potentially avoid this negative loop in future crises. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Fiscal policy Hysteresis Potential output |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13149-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541952 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Antonio Fatas. DP13149 Fiscal Policy, Potential Output and the Shifting Goalposts. 2018. |
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