| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| 来源ID | DP13288
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| DP13288 Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient, Past, Present and Future |
| Rebecca Mari; Gregory Thwaites
|
| 发表日期 | 2018-10-31
|
| 出版年 | 2018
|
| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | In the UK’s 2016 referendum on EU membership, young voters were more likely than their elders to vote Remain. Applying new methods to a half century of data, we show that this pattern reflects both ageing and cohort effects. Although voters become more Eurosceptical as they age, recent cohorts are also more pro-European than their predecessors. Much of the pro-Europeanism of these recent cohorts is accounted for by their greater years of education. Going forward, the ageing of the electorate will thus be offset at least in part by the replacement of older cohorts with younger, better-educated and more pro-European ones. But we also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects. Hence these demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment. Rather, nationwide changes in sentiment, reflecting macroeconomic or other conditions, and the age-turnout gradient will be key. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance
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| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13288
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| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542098
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Rebecca Mari,Gregory Thwaites. DP13288 Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age-Leave Gradient, Past, Present and Future. 2018.
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