| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13374 |
| DP13374 Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom | |
| Paula Gobbi | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-12-07 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using the US Census waves 1940-1990 and Current Population Surveys 1990-2010, we look at how economic uncertainty affected fertility cycles over the course of the XXth century. We use cross-state and cross-cohort variation in the volatility of income growth to identify the causal link running from uncertainty to completed fertility. We find that economic uncertainty has a large and robust negative effect on fertility. This finding contributes to the unraveling of the determinants of the post-WWII baby boom. Specifically, the difference in economic uncertainty endured by women born in 1910 compared to that faced by women born in 1935 accounts for between 45% and 61% of the one child variation across these cohorts. We hypothesize that a greater economic uncertainty increases the risk of large consumption swings, which individuals mitigate by marrying later, postponing fertility, and ultimately decreasing their completed fertility. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Baby boom Baby bust Fertility Economic uncertainty |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13374 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542185 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paula Gobbi. DP13374 Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles: The Case of the Post-WWII Baby Boom. 2018. |
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