| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13389 |
| DP13389 Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs | |
| Davide Furceri; Swarnali Ahmed Hannan; Jonathan D. Ostry; Andrew Rose | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-12-12 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Protection Output Productivity Unemployment Inequality exchange rate Trade balance |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13389 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542200 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Davide Furceri,Swarnali Ahmed Hannan,Jonathan D. Ostry,et al. DP13389 Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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