G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP13389
DP13389 Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs
Davide Furceri; Swarnali Ahmed Hannan; Jonathan D. Ostry; Andrew Rose
发表日期2018-12-12
出版年2018
语种英语
摘要We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance ; International Trade and Regional Economics
关键词Protection Output Productivity Unemployment Inequality exchange rate Trade balance
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp13389
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542200
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Davide Furceri,Swarnali Ahmed Hannan,Jonathan D. Ostry,et al. DP13389 Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs. 2018.
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