| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13393 |
| DP13393 The economics and politics of revoking NAFTA | |
| Andrei Levchenko; Raphael Auer; Barthelemey Bonadio | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-12-13 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Abstract We provide a quantitative assessment of both the aggregate and the distributional effects of revoking NAFTA, using a multi-country, multi-sector, multi-factor model of world production and trade with global input-output linkages. Revoking NAFTA would reduce US welfare by about 0.2%, and Canadian and Mexican welfare by about 2%. The distributional impacts of revoking NAFTA across workers in different sectors are an order of magnitude larger in all three countries, ranging from -2.7 to 2.26% in the United States. We combine the quantitative results with information on the geographic distribution of sectoral employment, and compute average real wage changes in each US congressional district, Mexican state, and Canadian province. We then examine the political correlates of the economic effects. Congressional district-level real wage changes are negatively correlated with the Trump vote share in 2016: districts that voted more for Trump would on average experience greater real wage reductions if NAFTA is revoked. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Nafta Quantitative trade models Distributional effects Protectionism Trade policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13393 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542203 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andrei Levchenko,Raphael Auer,Barthelemey Bonadio. DP13393 The economics and politics of revoking NAFTA. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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