| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13495 |
| DP13495 The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict | |
| Wilko Bolt; Kostas Mavromatis; Sweder van Wijnbergen | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-01-30 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the global macroeconomic effects of tariffs using a multiregional, general equilibrium model, EAGLE, that we extend by introducing US tariffs against Chinese imports into the US, and subsequently Chinese tariffs against US imports into China, consistent with recent trade policies by the US and the Chinese governments. We abstract from tariffs on goods exported from the euro area, focusing on a US-China trade war. A unilateral tariff from the US against China dampens US exports in line with the Lerner Symmetry theorem but global output contracts. Global output contracts even further after China retaliates. The euro area benefits from this trade war. These European trade diversion benefits are caused by cheaper imports from China and improved competitiveness in the US. As price stickiness in the export sector in each region increases, the negative effects of tariffs in the US and China are mitigated, but the positive effects in the euro area are then also dampened. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Trade policy Exchange rates Trade diversion Local currency pricing |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13495 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542311 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wilko Bolt,Kostas Mavromatis,Sweder van Wijnbergen. DP13495 The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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