| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP13579
|
| DP13579 Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump's Trade Wars |
| Thiemo Fetzer; Carlo Schwarz
|
| 发表日期 | 2019-03-11
|
| 出版年 | 2019
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Are retaliatiory tariffs politically targeted and, if so, are they effective? Do countries designing a retaliation response face a trade-off between maximizing political targeting and mitigating domestic economic harm? We use the recent trade escalation between the US, China, the European Union (EU) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries to answer these questions. We find substantial evidence that retaliation was directly targeted to areas that swung to Donald Trump in 2016 (but not to other Republican candidates running for office in the same year). We further assess whether retaliation was optimally chosen using a novel simulation approach constructing counterfactual retaliation responses. For China and particularly, for Mexico and Canada, the chosen retaliation appears suboptimal: there exist alternative retaliation bundles that would have produced a higher degree of political targeting, while posing a lower risk to damage the own economy. We further present evidence that retaliation produces economic shocks: US exports on goods subject to retaliation declined by up to USD 15.28 billion in 2018 and export prices have dropped significantly. Lastly, we find some evidence suggesting that retaliation is effective: in areas exposed to retaliation Republican candidates fared worse in the 2018 Midterm elections, and similarly Presidential approval ratings, especially among Democrats, have declined. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics
|
| 关键词 | Trade war
Tariff
Targeting
Political economy
Elections
Populism
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13579-0
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542436
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Thiemo Fetzer,Carlo Schwarz. DP13579 Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump's Trade Wars. 2019.
|
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