| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13679 |
| DP13679 Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment | |
| Huseyin Gulen; Mihai Ion | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-04-16 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the real effects of credit market sentiment on corporate investment and financing for a comprehensive panel of U.S. public and private firms over 1963-2016. In the short term, we find that high credit market sentiment in year t correlates with high corporate investment and debt issuance in year t+1, particularly for financially constrained firms. In the longer term, high credit market sentiment in year t correlates with a decline in debt issuance in years t+3 and t+4; and with a decline in corporate investment in years t + 4 and t + 5. This pattern of increased investment in the short term and declined investment in the longer term is more pronounced for firms with larger analysts' earnings forecast revisions and comes with larger analysts' forecast errors, supporting theories of over-extrapolation of fundamentals into the future. A parsimonious dynamic model where over-extrapolation is the only departure from standard Q-theory does a good job matching the empirical moments of our data. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics |
| 关键词 | Credit-market sentiment Credit cycles Corporate investment Over-extrapolation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13679 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542538 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huseyin Gulen,Mihai Ion. DP13679 Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment. 2019. |
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