全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP13721 Structural change in the Chinese economy and changing trade relations with the world

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP13721
	DP13721 Structural change in the Chinese economy and changing trade relations with the world
	Robert Koopman; Eddy Bekkers; Carolina Lemos
发表日期	2019-05-07
出版年	2019
语种	英语
摘要	This paper examines the impact of structural change in China, in particular a reduction in the savings rate, an increase in the share of skilled workers, and an increase in productivity in technologically advanced manufacturing sectors targeted by Made in China 2025. Baseline projections until 2040 are generated with the WTO Global Trade Model, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. With the modelled structural changes the Chinese economy is projected to reorient its focus increasingly onto the domestic economy, raising the share of private household and government consumption in GDP, turning China's trade surplus into a trade deficit, reducing China's share in global exports, raising the share of services in both production and exports, shifting the destination markets of Chinese exports from developed to developing countries, and changing its pattern of comparative advantage away from sectors like light and heavy manufacturing to electronic and machinery equipment. The large bilateral trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States is projected to fall to almost zero.
主题	International Trade and Regional Economics
关键词	Dynamic cge-modelling Structural change China
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp13721
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542583
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Robert Koopman,Eddy Bekkers,Carolina Lemos. DP13721 Structural change in the Chinese economy and changing trade relations with the world. 2019.