| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13760 |
| DP13760 Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries? | |
| Kurt Mitman; Stanislav Rabinovich | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-05-27 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Countercyclical unemployment benefit extensions in the United States act as a propagation mechanism, contributing to both the high persistence of unemployment and its weak correlation with productivity. We show this by modifying an otherwise standard frictional model of the labor market to incorporate a stochastic and state-dependent process for unemployment insurance estimated on US data. Accounting for movements in both productivity and unemployment insurance, our calibrated model is consistent with unemployment dynamics of the past 50 years. In particular, it explains the emergence of jobless recoveries in the 1990's as well as their absence in previous recessions, the low correlation between unemployment and labor productivity, and the apparent shifts in the Beveridge curve following recessions. Next, we embed this mechanism into a medium-scale DSGE model, which we estimate using standard Bayesian methods. Both shocks to unemployment benefits and their systematic component are shown to be important for the sluggish recovery of employment following recessions, in particular the Great Recession, despite the fact that shocks to unemployment benefits account for little of the overall variance decomposition. If we also incorporate other social safety nets, such as food stamps (SNAP), the estimated model assigns an even bigger role to policy in explaining sluggish labor market recovery. We also find that unemployment benefit extensions prevented deflation in the last three recessions, thus acting similarly to a wage markup shock. |
| 主题 | Labour Economics ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Unemployment insurance Business cycles Jobless recoveries |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13760 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542625 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kurt Mitman,Stanislav Rabinovich. DP13760 Do Unemployment Benefit Extensions Explain the Emergence of Jobless Recoveries?. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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