全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP13774 Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence and Bias

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP13774
	DP13774 Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence and Bias
	Andreas I. Mueller; Johannes Spinnewijn; Giorgio Topa
发表日期	2019-06-02
出版年	2019
语种	英语
摘要	This paper analyses job seekers' perceptions and their relationship to unemployment outcomes to study heterogeneity and duration-dependence in both perceived and actual job finding. Using longitudinal data from two comprehensive surveys, we document (1) that reported beliefs have strong predictive power of actual job finding, (2) that job seekers are over-optimistic in their beliefs, particularly the long-term unemployed, and (3) that job seekers do not revise their beliefs downward when remaining unemployed. We then develop a reduced-form statistical framework where we exploit the joint observation of beliefs and ex-post realizations, to disentangle heterogeneity and duration-dependence in true job finding rates while allowing for elicitation errors and systematic biases in beliefs. We find a substantial amount of heterogeneity in true job finding rates, accounting for almost all of the observed decline in job finding rates over the spell of unemployment. Moreover, job seekers' beliefs are systematically biased and under-respond to these differences in job finding rates. Finally, we show theoretically and quantify in a calibrated model of job search how biased beliefs contribute to the slow exit out of unemployment. The biases can explain more than 10 percent of the incidence of long-term unemployment.
主题	Labour Economics ; Public Economics
关键词	Unemployment Duration dependence beliefs Biases
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp13774
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542641
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andreas I. Mueller,Johannes Spinnewijn,Giorgio Topa. DP13774 Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence and Bias. 2019.