| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13798 |
| DP13798 Stable genius? The macroeconomic impact of Trump | |
| Benjamin Born; Gernot Müller; Moritz Schularick; Petr Sedlacek | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-06-13 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | How much credit does Donald Trump deserve for the macroeconomic performance of the US economy? Growth and job creation have been robust during the first 2.5 years since he took office, but this does not prove that Trump made a difference. In this note we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved without Trump---we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the post-election performance of the US economy to this synthetic "doppelganger". For now there is little evidence for a Trump effect. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | President trump Macroeconomic performance Economic growth Stable genius Counterfactual Synthetic control method |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13798-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542670 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Benjamin Born,Gernot Müller,Moritz Schularick,et al. DP13798 Stable genius? The macroeconomic impact of Trump. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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